Not only a mild winter: German consumers change their behavior to save natural gas
article
Abstract
By the start of the 2022/2023 heating season, Germany and many other European countries found themselves facing a potential gas supply shortage in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In search of a response, authorities called on residential and commercial sectors to save natural gas. Exploiting winter 2022/23 as a “natural experiment,” we shed light on the magnitude of behavioral gas savings using open data and a machine learning method. Despite being exposed to incomplete price signals, we find significant behavioral gas savings by German households and businesses, contributing to closing the supply gap. We uncover temperature-dependent saving dynamics and discuss the potential roles of different drivers of this change. Finally, we highlight the pivotal role of a timely and continuous provision of openly accessible data and analysis to inform the general public as well as policymakers.