Coping with the Dunkelflaute: Power system implications of variable renewable energy droughts in Europe
working paper
Abstract
Coping with prolonged periods of low availability of wind and solar power, also referred to as renewable energy droughts or “Dunkelflaute”, emerges as a key challenge for realizing decarbonized energy systems based on renewable energy sources. Here we investigate the role of long-duration electricity storage and geographical balancing in dealing with such events, combining a time series analysis of renewable availability with power sector modeling of 35 historical weather years. We find that extreme droughts define long-duration storage operation and investment. Assuming policy-relevant interconnection in our model, we find 351 TWh long-duration storage capacity or 7% of yearly electricity demand in the least-cost system that can cope with the most extreme event in Europe. While nuclear power can partially reduce storage needs, the storage-mitigating effect of fossil backup plants in combination with carbon removal is limited. Policymakers and system planners should prepare for a rapid expansion of long-duration storage to safeguard the renewable energy transition in Europe.